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Synopsis

Do you long for the day when you can work less and travel more? Do you fear that you'll never have enough money to be able to retire? By following Warren Buffett's approach in his book Invested, you can learn how to build an investment portfolio that will give you the financial freedom you need.

The key to Buffett's approach is to look for companies that you can understand, that have an intrinsic and durable competitive advantage, and that have talented management. Then, calculate a good price at which to buy that company's shares.

Value investing does involve diving into the sometimes-complex world of financial statements, but with practice, you can figure out which are the most important numbers on any company's Income Statement, Balance Sheet, and Cash Flow Statement, and use them to decide whether a company meets your investment criteria.

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Questions and answers
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The economic environment can greatly impact value investing. In a strong economy, companies may perform well, increasing their intrinsic value and potentially providing good investment opportunities for value investors. Conversely, in a weak economy, companies may struggle, which could decrease their intrinsic value and make them less attractive to value investors. However, a weak economy could also present opportunities for value investors to buy stocks at a discount if they believe the company's intrinsic value is higher than its current market price.

Key financial indicators to consider in value investing include the company's income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement. These can help you determine whether a company meets your investment criteria.

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Once you have calculated the right price for your target companies, wait until the share price falls to that level and then buy, confident in the knowledge that you have an anti-fragile portfolio that will not just give you a great rate of return but will also be able to survive the next – inevitable – market downturn.

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One can balance risk and reward in their investment portfolio by calculating the right price for their target companies and waiting until the share price falls to that level before buying. This creates an anti-fragile portfolio that not only provides a great rate of return but also survives market downturns.

For those who prefer a more aggressive approach, some alternative investment strategies could include investing in high-risk, high-reward assets such as cryptocurrencies, venture capital, and private equity. Other strategies could involve trading in derivatives, foreign exchange, or commodities. It's also possible to adopt a more aggressive stance within traditional asset classes, such as investing in growth stocks or high-yield bonds. However, it's important to note that these strategies come with a higher level of risk and should only be undertaken by investors who understand and are comfortable with these risks.

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Summary

Fear keeps most of us from controlling our own investment decisions but following Warren Buffett's value investing approach can give you financial freedom. The key is to look for a handful of companies that will give you great investment returns over the long term. There are four simple rules to follow: pick a business you are capable of understanding; one with a durable competitive advantage; whose management has integrity and talent; and that you can buy for a price that makes sense. This way, you can build an anti-fragile portfolio that will not only survive the inevitable next market downturn but will thrive in the long term.

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Questions and answers
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Some challenges in following Warren Buffett's investment approach include understanding the business model of the company you are investing in, identifying companies with a durable competitive advantage, assessing the integrity and talent of the management, and determining a sensible price for the investment. Additionally, it requires patience and discipline to stick to this approach during market downturns.

You can apply Warren Buffett's investment approach in your own decisions by following his value investing approach. This involves looking for a few companies that will provide great investment returns over the long term. There are four rules to follow: choose a business you can understand; one with a durable competitive advantage; whose management has integrity and talent; and that you can buy for a sensible price. This way, you can build a portfolio that will not only survive the next market downturn but will thrive in the long term.

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1. Getting started

Most of us yearn for some level of financial freedom, but are busy juggling work-life stress, paying off student loans, servicing a mortgage, and perhaps raising kids while pursuing a career. In the middle of all of this it's tough to take the plunge and create your own investment portfolio. Many of us are too afraid of the risks involved in anything to do with the financial markets. However, with some education and practice it is possible to follow in the footsteps of Warren Buffett and his 'value investing' strategy.

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Questions and answers
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'Value investing' can help in achieving work-life balance by providing a potential source of passive income. This strategy, popularized by Warren Buffett, involves investing in stocks that appear to be undervalued by the market. With proper education and practice, one can build an investment portfolio that generates income over time. This can reduce financial stress and provide more freedom, potentially improving work-life balance. However, it's important to note that investing always involves risks and it's crucial to make informed decisions.

Patience plays a crucial role in 'value investing'. This strategy involves buying stocks that appear to be undervalued by the market, and then waiting for their market value to reflect their intrinsic value. This process can take a considerable amount of time, hence, patience is key. Investors need to resist the urge to sell off their investments at the first sign of profit, instead, they should wait for the full potential of their investments to be realized.

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In 1956 Warren started the Buffett Partnership in Omaha, Nebraska, investing his money and that of friends and family. Over the next fourteen years his investments averaged annual returns of 31.5%. In 1969 Buffett closed that partnership and put all his money in Berkshire Hathaway, a public company controlled by Buffett and his investment partner Charlie Munger. Berkshire buys the shares of publicly traded companies like Coca-Cola as well as entire companies like Geico. Now known as the Oracle of Omaha and the elder statesman of the value investing world Buffett's strategy is simple: buy a wonderful company when it is a bargain and only when you are certain that it will be worth more in ten years than it is today; and hold onto it even if the price goes down.

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Warren Buffett, also known as the Oracle of Omaha, has invested in a variety of companies through his company, Berkshire Hathaway. Some notable examples include Coca-Cola and Geico. Buffett's investment strategy is simple yet effective: he buys shares in wonderful companies when they are a bargain, with the certainty that they will be worth more in ten years than they are today. He then holds onto these shares, even if the price goes down.

Warren Buffett's investment strategy, known as value investing, played a significant role in his success. His strategy is simple but effective: he buys shares of a wonderful company when it is a bargain and only when he is certain that it will be worth more in ten years than it is today. He then holds onto it even if the price goes down. This approach allowed him to average annual returns of 31.5% over fourteen years with the Buffett Partnership. He later put all his money in Berkshire Hathaway, a public company controlled by him and his investment partner Charlie Munger, further solidifying his success.

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The problem with inflation

Recessions have taught us that the stock market is a fickle partner. For many of us, it is tempting to become a financial hoarder and put everything in the financial equivalent of 'under the mattress,' i.e., buy U.S. Treasury Department bills or T-bills, which are guaranteed by the federal government and considered as close to risk-free as it's possible to get. Unfortunately, inflation happens. Inflation is a good thing in that relatively low and steady price increases lead to what economists call a virtuous cycle of rising production and demand, leading to higher wages and more consumption. Of course, a high rate of inflation is a bad thing – it devalues money so quickly that wages and jobs can't keep up. However, even moderate inflation is bad for savers as it erodes the purchasing power of your money. The $100 you have today won't buy you as much ten years down the road, when prices have gone up an average of 3.0% every year.

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The concept of a virtuous cycle, as explained in the book 'Invested', refers to a sequence of events where each step, through a beneficial effect on the economy, leads to the next. It's often used in the context of economics and finance. In the book, it's used to describe a situation where low and steady price increases lead to a cycle of rising production and demand. This, in turn, leads to higher wages and increased consumption. This cycle is 'virtuous' because it promotes economic stability and growth. However, it's important to note that high rates of inflation can disrupt this cycle, as it devalues money so quickly that wages and jobs can't keep up.

Traditional sectors like manufacturing or retail can apply the concept of value investing to safeguard against the impact of inflation by investing in assets that are undervalued but have strong fundamentals and potential for growth. This could include investing in their own business, such as improving production efficiency, investing in technology, or expanding their product line, which can increase the company's intrinsic value. They can also invest in other undervalued companies or assets. The key is to identify investments that are likely to yield returns above the inflation rate in the long run. This approach requires thorough research and analysis, and a long-term perspective.

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In fact, you have to earn at least a 3.0% return on your money every year just to stop its value from eroding. Stock markets typically rise with inflation as company revenue and earnings also rise. So, the only way to grow your savings is through investment.

Fear of the market

The problem with the stock market, of course, is that it goes down as well as up – and a lot of things can cause a stock price to fall. Women investors in particular tend to have a low risk tolerance, making many of them unwilling to invest in the market. It seems safer to pay a professional to manage your money for you – but, that money manager has to be paid whether or not they actually make money for you. If you learn how to practice value investing, you can manage your own money with confidence.

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Questions and answers
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The themes of the book "Invested" are highly relevant to contemporary issues and debates in the financial market. The book discusses the concept of value investing, a strategy endorsed by Warren Buffett, which involves buying stocks that are undervalued by the market. This approach is particularly relevant today as investors grapple with market volatility and seek strategies to manage risk and achieve sustainable returns. The book also addresses the issue of gender disparity in investing, a topic of ongoing debate in the financial world.

Potential obstacles when practicing value investing include market volatility, low risk tolerance, and lack of knowledge or confidence in managing one's own investments. Overcoming these obstacles involves educating oneself about the market and investment strategies, building confidence through practice and experience, and developing a balanced portfolio to mitigate risk. It's also important to stay patient and not be swayed by short-term market fluctuations, as value investing is a long-term strategy.

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As you go through these steps you will progress from Unconscious Incompetence (you don't realize how little you know), through Conscious Incompetence (you know what you need to do but don't know how), to Conscious Competence (you know how to do this!), and finally to Unconscious Competence (you're so good at this you don't even have to think about it anymore). The key thing to bear in mind right now is that you won't actually be buying anything until you've worked your way through all these steps and arrived at a level of Conscious Competence.

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Questions and answers
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Warren Buffett's approach to value investing is based on the principle of buying stocks at less than their intrinsic value. The key case studies or examples used in his approach include companies like Coca-Cola, American Express, and Geico. Buffett invested in these companies when they were undervalued, and held onto the stocks for a long period of time, reaping significant returns. The broader implications of his approach suggest that patience, thorough analysis, and understanding of a company's business model are crucial for successful investing.

A small business can use Warren Buffett's approach to value investing by focusing on long-term growth rather than short-term profits. This involves investing in assets that are undervalued but have the potential to increase in value over time. It also means understanding the business thoroughly, including its financial health and competitive position in the market. Additionally, patience is key in value investing, as it often takes time for an investment to yield significant returns.

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So, how much do you really need to invest? To figure this out, you need to understand how the market works, and what your investment number really is.

The market

'The market' is short-hand for the many stock exchanges around the world. In the U.S., the best known is the New York Stock Exchange or NYSE. The concept of trading shares on the market has been around since the Dutch invented the idea in the 1600s, dividing up a corporation into fractions that can be owned. When you buy or sell a share on a stock exchange you are buying it from, or selling it to, another investor, not to the corporation itself. Today, a lot of the actual buying and selling is done electronically rather than in a Dutch coffee house, but the principle is the same.

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Some key strategies for successful trading on the stock market include:

1. Understanding the market: Knowledge about how the stock market works is crucial. This includes understanding the different types of stocks, how they are traded, and the factors that influence their prices.

2. Diversification: Spreading your investments across a variety of stocks can help to mitigate risk.

3. Long-term investing: Rather than trying to make quick profits through short-term trades, consider investing in stocks with solid fundamentals for the long term.

4. Regular monitoring: Keep an eye on your investments and the market conditions regularly. This will help you make informed decisions about when to buy or sell.

5. Risk management: Always be aware of the potential risks involved in stock trading and have a plan to manage them.

The principles of value investing can be applied to the modern stock market by focusing on buying stocks that are undervalued. This involves analyzing a company's fundamentals, such as its earnings, dividends, and assets, to determine its intrinsic value. If the current market price is less than its intrinsic value, it may be a good investment. This approach requires patience and discipline, as it may take time for the market to recognize the company's true value. It's also important to diversify your portfolio to spread risk.

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Market asymmetry

A few hundred years after the Dutch created the first stock exchange, the British came up with the idea of the limited liability company – exactly what it sounds like, this is a corporate structure that limits the liability of corporate owners to the assets of the company, keeping their private assets safe. This is great for encouraging the kind of risk-taking needed for entrepreneurialism but can also lead to corporations with no sense of responsibility for their actions.

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Some potential challenges a company might face when applying the concept of limited liability include potential misuse of the protection, which can lead to irresponsible behavior and risk-taking. This can damage the company's reputation and trust with stakeholders. To overcome these challenges, companies can implement strong corporate governance structures, promote ethical business practices, and maintain transparency in their operations. Additionally, they can ensure they have adequate insurance coverage to protect against unforeseen liabilities.

The book "Invested" relates to contemporary issues in corporate responsibility and investment by discussing the concept of value investing, a strategy popularized by Warren Buffett. It emphasizes the importance of understanding a company's value and its potential for growth, which includes assessing its corporate responsibility. The book also discusses the history and implications of the limited liability company, a structure that can encourage risk-taking but may also lead to corporations lacking responsibility for their actions. This ties into modern discussions about the role and accountability of corporations in society.

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Another aspect of the stock market to bear in mind is that management has a lot more information about the company than do shareholders. Theoretically, the shareholders indirectly run the company by electing a board of directors; but in reality, this is at best arms-length control, with the board overseeing the major decisions and appointing executive officers to actually run the company.

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A startup can use the key topics covered in the book 'Invested' to understand the role of shareholders and management in running a company by learning about the concept of value investing and the relationship between shareholders, board of directors, and executive officers. The book explains that shareholders indirectly run the company by electing a board of directors. However, the control is at arms-length as the board oversees major decisions and appoints executive officers to run the company. This understanding can help a startup establish a clear governance structure and make informed decisions about its management and operations.

The key takeaways from "Invested" that can be actionable for entrepreneurs or managers are: understanding the importance of value investing, recognizing that management has more information about the company than shareholders, and realizing that shareholders indirectly run the company by electing a board of directors. However, this control is often at arms-length, with the board making major decisions and appointing executive officers to run the company.

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Abdicating control

About 85% of the money in the stock market actually comes from individual investors, ordinary people trying to build their nest eggs through 401k plans, IRAs, and insurance policies. However, most of this investment is done through proxies:

  • Mutual funds: A collection of stocks and bonds, chosen by a financial advisor who charges a fee whether or not they grow your money.
  • Market index funds: A market index is a group of stocks that tell us how the market is doing overall, e.g., the S&P 500 – five hundred stocks that indicate how the overall 6,000 or so stocks on the market are performing. Market index funds buy the stocks in the index to passively follow the market, charging a lower fee than an actively managed mutual fund. Buffett says this is the best option if you're not willing to do your own value investing, but it also means you will only average a return of about 7.0% a year.
  • Exchange traded funds (ETFs): Another index tracking idea, but a fund that you buy and sell direct from a broker like an individual stock, the fees tend to be higher than for market index funds but lower than for mutual funds.
  • Robo-advisors: A computer program that offers the same kind of investment options as a human advisor, but at a lower fee.

All of these money managers charge you a fee to invest your money, whether or not they actually grow your savings; and, at best, most barely manage to beat the market average. If the market rises an average of 7.0% a year, but your money manager charges you 2.0%, the actual earning on your savings is only 5.0%. In other words, it gets even harder to beat the rate of inflation and build up your money enough to gain financial freedom.

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Questions and answers
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Yes, there are several real-world examples of individuals and companies successfully implementing Warren Buffett’s approach to value investing. Some notable examples include Charlie Munger, Buffett's long-time business partner at Berkshire Hathaway, and Lou Simpson, who managed GEICO's investment portfolio for many years. Other successful value investors influenced by Buffett include Seth Klarman, founder of the Baupost Group, and Mason Hawkins, founder of Southeastern Asset Management. These investors have all used value investing principles similar to those advocated by Buffett to achieve significant success in the financial markets.

The book "Invested" suggests overcoming the challenge of beating the rate of inflation in investment by following Warren Buffett's approach to value investing. This approach involves building an investment portfolio that grows your savings without relying on money managers who charge fees. The book emphasizes that most money managers barely manage to beat the market average and their fees can reduce your actual earnings, making it harder to beat the rate of inflation. Therefore, by investing yourself and avoiding these fees, you can potentially achieve higher returns and beat the rate of inflation.

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On the other hand, studies have shown that Buffett-style value investing returns over 20% a year.

Calculate your number

The first step to building your own investment practice is to write down what financial freedom means to you – perhaps the ability to work less, pay off your debts, travel, or just feel less stressed?

To figure out what you need to attain your own financial freedom, you just need to know four things: how much you actually need to spend every year; how many years you have left to build your investment total; how much you can afford to put into investments; and, based on these first three things, your required rate of return.

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According to the book "Invested", the four key things you need to know to attain financial freedom are: how much you actually need to spend every year; how many years you have left to build your investment total; how much you can afford to put into investments; and, based on these first three things, your required rate of return.

The book 'Invested' suggests implementing Warren Buffett's approach to value investing for retirement planning by understanding your financial needs and goals. It emphasizes on knowing four key things: your annual expenditure, the number of years left to build your investment, the amount you can afford to invest, and your required rate of return based on these factors. By understanding these, you can effectively implement Buffett's value investing approach, which focuses on investing in undervalued, fundamentally strong companies and holding them for a long term.

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What is your mission?

Given this asymmetry of information and the sheer number of publicly traded companies, how do you start to narrow your choices? Find your mission – what you really care about, the values that you want to bring to your investing practice. Take some time to come up with the list that defines your mission. Perhaps your focus is on treating employees well, not exploiting animals, supporting local communities, and so on.

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Focusing on personal mission and values can significantly influence investment decisions. It helps in narrowing down the choices from a vast number of publicly traded companies. By identifying what you really care about, you can align your investments with your values. For instance, if your focus is on treating employees well, not exploiting animals, or supporting local communities, you would invest in companies that uphold these values. This approach not only provides financial returns but also contributes to personal satisfaction and societal well-being.

Warren Buffett's approach to value investing can be applied to support local communities by investing in local businesses that align with your mission and values. This could include businesses that treat their employees well, do not exploit animals, and actively support the local community. By investing in these businesses, you are not only potentially gaining a financial return, but also contributing to the welfare of the community.

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The mission is the first step you will use in creating the story of a company you are considering investing in.

2. Value investing

Charlie Munger laid out the basics of the value investing strategy in four simple principles, the things that must apply before putting money into a company:

  • It must be a business you are capable of understanding
  • It must have a durable competitive advantage
  • It has management with integrity and talent
  • You can buy it for a price that makes sense and gives a margin of safety

Before looking at each of these principles in more depth, we need to consider the way the market really works.

EMH

The Efficient Market Hypothesis or EMH assumes that people are rational actors who buy and sell a stock based on what it is worth, and that a stock's price therefore reflects all available information at any given moment. EMH says that the reason professionals rarely 'beat the market' is because the price always adjusts as soon as new information is available.

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Value investing, a strategy advocated by Warren Buffett, can be applied to achieve financial freedom by focusing on buying stocks that are undervalued. This involves thorough research and analysis to identify such stocks. The idea is to buy these stocks at a price less than their intrinsic value and hold onto them until their market price reflects their true value, thereby making a profit. This strategy requires patience and discipline, as it may take time for the market to recognize the stock's true value. It's also important to diversify your portfolio to spread risk. Remember, the goal is to build a solid investment portfolio that will grow over time and provide a steady income for retirement.

Warren Buffett's approach to value investing challenges the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) in several ways. Firstly, Buffett believes in the concept of 'intrinsic value', which suggests that a stock has an inherent value that may not be reflected in the current market price. This contradicts the EMH, which asserts that a stock's price always reflects all available information. Secondly, Buffett's success in consistently achieving above-average returns also challenges the EMH's assertion that it's impossible to consistently 'beat the market'.

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And yet, the original Buffett Partnership had average annual returns of over 30%. One academic proponent of the EMH claimed Buffett was just lucky, like a monkey flipping coins. In 1984 Warren published his response, an article in the Columbia Business School magazine in which he pointed out that if you found a bunch of lucky monkeys that all came from the same zoo in Omaha, you'd be pretty sure you were onto something!

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A small business can use Warren Buffett's approach to value investing by focusing on long-term growth rather than short-term profits. This involves investing in businesses that are undervalued but have strong fundamentals and potential for growth. It also means being patient and not being swayed by market fluctuations. Additionally, it's important to understand the business you're investing in, its competitive position, and its future prospects.

The original Buffett Partnership, led by Warren Buffett, is a prime example of successful value investing. It boasted average annual returns of over 30%, a feat that critics attributed to luck. However, Buffett refuted this by arguing that consistent success cannot be merely luck. The broader implications of this case highlight the effectiveness of value investing when executed correctly. It suggests that thorough research, patience, and a keen understanding of the market can yield high returns, debunking the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) that all stocks are appropriately priced based on their inherent investment properties.

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In fact, said Buffett, the market is far from efficient because investors can exploit gaps between price and value. What's more, fund managers often buy and sell based on greed or fear, not on rational and fully informed decisions. In 1999 Yale economics professor Robert Shiller published the book Irrational Exuberance in which he showed that the market regularly behaves irrationally. Nassim Nicholas Taleb then weighed in with his book, The Black Swan, arguing that the market is neither random nor unbeatable; supposedly impossible Black Swan events actually happen quite regularly.

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Yes, there are several companies that have successfully implemented the practices outlined in the book 'Invested'. One of the most notable examples is Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett himself. The company's success is largely attributed to Buffett's value investing approach, which is the main focus of 'Invested'. Other examples include companies like Coca-Cola, American Express, and Wells Fargo, which are part of Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio and have also adopted similar investment strategies.

A small business can use the principles of value investing to grow by making rational and fully informed decisions, rather than acting out of greed or fear. They can exploit gaps between price and value, just like Warren Buffett suggests. This could mean investing in undervalued assets or opportunities that have the potential to yield high returns in the long run. It's also important to be prepared for Black Swan events, which are unpredictable but have significant impact. By doing so, a small business can build a strong and resilient portfolio that can help it grow.

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Additional academic research has shown that people tend to make decisions based on biases and emotions, not on rational pursuit of self-interest. In other words, EMH is wrong and value investing really does work.

Stuff happens

Events happen – things that are unexpected, that affect the company or the whole market, but that are temporary and rectifiable. Thanks to the nature of their industry, fund managers react to Events – they cannot wait for months or even years for a company to recover. The key to value investing is that, thanks to your research into the company and the industry, you will know when something is a temporary Event rather than a terminal problem in a badly run company.

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Warren Buffett's approach to value investing involves thorough research into the company and the industry. This research helps in understanding the nature of the problem a company is facing. If the problem is due to an unexpected event that affects the company or the whole market but is temporary and rectifiable, it's considered a temporary event. However, if the problem is inherent to the company's operations and is not rectifiable, it's considered a terminal problem. Fund managers often react to temporary events, but value investors like Buffett are patient and can wait for a company to recover from temporary setbacks.

Understanding the difference between a temporary event and a terminal problem in a company is crucial to successful value investing. Temporary events are unexpected occurrences that affect the company or the market but are rectifiable. These events may cause a temporary dip in the company's stock price, providing a good buying opportunity for value investors who understand that the company's fundamentals remain strong. On the other hand, terminal problems are serious issues that can lead to the downfall of a company. Identifying these problems can prevent value investors from investing in companies that are likely to fail in the future.

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Bubbles and crashes happen in the market, and they can seem random and unpredictable. However, there are two good sources for market-pricing information that help the value investor to tell when the market is mis-priced.

Shiller P/E

Robert Shiller won a Nobel Prize for creating this indicator that shows how over- or under-priced the market is. Shiller calculates the cyclically- and inflation-adjusted earnings of the S&P 500 over the past ten years and divides that number into the total market price of the S&P 500. Over the past 140 years the average Shiller P/E is 16.4, so when the indicator goes much above (or below) this level it's a sign that the market is badly mispriced. It's only risen above this level three times: in 1929 it rose to 32, then the market crashed down 90%; in 2000 it reached 44, then the market dropped 50%; and by late 2017 the Shiller P/E had risen to 31, suggesting that it's getting ready for another sharp fall.

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A high Shiller P/E ratio indicates that the market is overpriced, which could suggest a potential market correction or downturn in the future. For an investor following Warren Buffett's approach to value investing, this could mean that it's harder to find undervalued companies to invest in. Buffett's strategy involves buying stocks that are undervalued and holding them for a long period of time. Therefore, a high Shiller P/E might imply that there are fewer opportunities to find such stocks. However, it's important to note that market conditions are just one factor to consider in value investing, and Buffett's approach also involves thorough analysis of a company's fundamentals.

The Shiller P/E indicator, developed by Nobel laureate Robert Shiller, can be used to predict market crashes by indicating when the market is over- or under-priced. It calculates the cyclically- and inflation-adjusted earnings of the S&P 500 over the past ten years and divides that number into the total market price of the S&P 500. The average Shiller P/E over the past 140 years is 16.4. When the indicator significantly deviates from this average, it suggests that the market is mispriced. For instance, it rose to 32 in 1929, 44 in 2000, and 31 in late 2017, each time followed by a market crash. Therefore, a high Shiller P/E can be a warning sign of an impending market crash.

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Wilshire GDP

Buffett says that the best measure of where valuations stand at any given moment is the ratio between the market as a whole and national revenue. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis calculates one such ratio, colloquially known as the Wilshire GDP, which takes the capitalization of the Wilshire 5000 stock market index (i.e., how much the 5,000 companies in the index are worth) and divides it by the U.S. GDP. If the ratio is well below 100% then the market as a whole is underpriced; if it's well over 100% then the market is overpriced. The index went over 100% in 2000 and again in 2008, and each time the market subsequently crashed. As of late 2017 the Wilshire GDP stood at an historic high of 155%.

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When the Wilshire GDP ratio is well over 100%, it indicates that the market is overpriced. Historically, when the index has exceeded 100%, it has been followed by a market crash, as seen in 2000 and 2008. Therefore, a high Wilshire GDP ratio could potentially signal an upcoming market downturn.

Specific company names are not mentioned in the content. However, it's known that many successful investors and companies use various economic indicators, like the Wilshire GDP, to guide their investment strategies. The Wilshire GDP, which is the ratio of the Wilshire 5000 stock market index capitalization to the U.S. GDP, is a measure of market valuation. If the ratio is well below 100%, the market as a whole is underpriced; if it's well over 100%, the market is overpriced. This indicator can be used to make informed decisions about when to invest or divest. It's likely that companies following value investing principles, like those advocated by Warren Buffett, would use such indicators.

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Taken together these two indicators say a correction is coming.

Be capable of understanding the business

To reiterate, Charlie Munger's first principle is to put your money into a business that you are capable of understanding. Note, this is not the same as saying you have to understand it right now, just that it is something you are capable of understanding in the future after putting in some work. That means, pick an industry that is easy for you to understand: what are you passionate about (like healthy eating, cars, snowboarding, etc.); where do you actually spend your money (which stores and services do you use on a regular basis); and where do you make your money (which industry are you involved in). Where these three things overlap is where you will find the industries that are the easiest for you to understand.

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The theories presented in "Invested" challenge existing paradigms in the field of investing by emphasizing the importance of understanding the business you are investing in. Traditional investing practices often focus on market trends and financial analysis, while the approach advocated in "Invested" is more about understanding the industry and the business itself. This includes understanding what you are passionate about, where you spend your money, and where you make your money. This approach challenges the conventional wisdom of diversification and instead promotes focused investing in industries and businesses that the investor understands and is passionate about.

The book 'Invested' discusses the relevance of its themes to contemporary issues and debates by focusing on the concept of value investing, a strategy popularized by Warren Buffett. It emphasizes the importance of investing in businesses that one understands and is passionate about. This is particularly relevant in today's world where there is a plethora of investment options and information available, making it crucial for individuals to make informed decisions. The book also addresses common concerns such as retirement savings and financial independence, which are key issues in current financial debates.

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You can also get a sense of which companies to start researching by checking out what investment gurus such as Buffett, Munger, and others are buying. These investors only make their purchases public knowledge once a quarter, however, so you cannot just follow their investments without doing your own research to see if this is still a good buy for you. Warren Buffett's annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway's shareholders is also a great source of information about his thoughts and value investing. It's also a good idea to start reading the Wall Street Journal business section on a regular basis.

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The book 'Invested' provides insights into value investing by teaching readers how to build an investment portfolio following Warren Buffett's approach. It emphasizes the importance of doing your own research on companies, rather than blindly following the investments of gurus like Buffett and Munger. The book also suggests regularly reading the Wall Street Journal's business section and Warren Buffett's annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway's shareholders for valuable information on value investing.

Potential obstacles investors might face when applying the concepts from "Invested" could include lack of understanding of the value investing approach, difficulty in identifying undervalued stocks, and the challenge of patience required for long-term investing. To overcome these, investors could educate themselves more about value investing principles, use various tools and resources to aid in stock analysis, and cultivate patience and discipline to stick to their investment strategy. It's also important to do their own research rather than just following what investment gurus are buying.

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3. The moat and management

Charlie Munger's second principle of value investing is to pick a company with an intrinsic, durable competitive advantage. Buffett calls this concept the moat: the competitive advantage that makes the castle/company near-untouchable by competitors. This is not the same as the company doing a good job in solving a particular problem or filling a particular need; it has to be something that is intrinsic to the business, and durable – so difficult or expensive to overcome that no competitor is going to try.

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A company with a durable and intrinsic competitive advantage has a unique aspect that is integral to its business model and is difficult or costly for competitors to replicate. This could be a patented technology, a strong brand, or a dominant market position. This advantage is not just about solving a problem or fulfilling a need, but about doing so in a way that is unique and sustainable. On the other hand, a company that is simply good at solving a problem or need may not have such a unique or hard-to-replicate advantage, making it more vulnerable to competition.

Warren Buffett's concept of 'the moat' refers to a company's durable and intrinsic competitive advantage that protects it from competitors, much like a moat protects a castle. This competitive advantage could be a unique product, a strong brand, cost advantages, or access to scarce resources. It's not just about solving a problem or filling a need, but something that is inherent to the business and difficult or expensive for competitors to replicate. This 'moat' contributes to the company's long-term success and profitability.

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Types of moat

There are a number of types of moat. A brand moat is something like Coke or Kleenex, where people think in terms of the brand name rather than the product. A switching moat is one where it is very complicated or expensive for a customer to switch away, like switching from Apple to Microsoft for all your operating systems; similarly, a network moat is something like Facebook, where the act of switching is not difficult but if you do so, you lose access to an entire network.

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Small businesses can leverage the concept of a brand moat by focusing on building a strong, recognizable brand that customers associate with quality, reliability, or other positive attributes. This can be achieved through consistent branding, high-quality products or services, and excellent customer service. A network moat can be built by creating a product or service that becomes more valuable as more people use it. This can be achieved through referral programs, building a community around the product or service, or integrating with other popular platforms or services.

In investing, moats refer to a business' ability to maintain competitive advantages over its competitors in order to protect its long-term profits and market share from competing firms. There are several types of moats. A brand moat is when a company's brand name is so strong that it becomes synonymous with the product itself, like Coke or Kleenex. This can increase a company's value as it often leads to loyal customers and stable revenues. A switching moat is when it is difficult or expensive for customers to switch to a competitor's product, like switching from Apple to Microsoft for operating systems. This can also increase a company's value as it secures a steady customer base. A network moat is when a company's value increases with more users, like Facebook, where switching is not difficult but users lose access to the network. This can greatly increase a company's value as it can lead to rapid growth and high user engagement.

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A toll bridge is when a company has a near or actual monopoly in its industry – this can be a moat created by government regulation or by geographic location. Proprietary secrets, such as patents or other intellectual property, are an effective moat. And finally, price can be a moat – when a company is the low-cost provider because it can make its product or service more cheaply than anyone else.

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Being the low-cost provider in an industry can contribute to a company's competitive advantage in several ways. Firstly, it allows the company to offer its products or services at a lower price than its competitors, which can attract more customers and increase market share. Secondly, it can also increase the company's profit margins as it spends less to produce its goods or services. Lastly, being a low-cost provider can act as a barrier to entry for other companies, as they may not be able to compete on price.

Proprietary secrets, such as patents, serve as an effective moat for a company by providing it with exclusive rights to produce, use, and sell a particular invention or process. This exclusivity prevents competitors from copying or using the patented technology, thus creating a barrier to entry. It gives the company a competitive advantage, allowing it to potentially charge higher prices and earn higher profits. Furthermore, patents can also enhance a company's reputation and credibility in the market, attracting more customers and investors.

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Coca-Cola's moat

Take the case of Coca-Cola: it doesn't really have a secrets moat any more, just a very strong origin story that perpetuates the idea of a secret recipe; it doesn't have a switching moat or any kind of toll bridge; and it certainly isn't the cheapest producer. What it does have, however, is a very strong brand moat. That brand moat may not be durable, given that sugary sodas are becoming unpopular in the U.S. and Europe; however, a little research reveals that Coca-Cola is busy buying brands associated with health and nutrition, like Honest Tea and Odwalla. That suggests a company that is preparing for the future – which may explain why Buffett owns Coca-Cola shares.

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Warren Buffett's investment in Coca-Cola reflects his approach to value investing in several ways. Firstly, Coca-Cola has a strong brand moat, which is a key characteristic Buffett looks for in his investments. A strong brand moat means the company has a unique advantage that sets it apart from competitors, making it difficult for others to replicate their success. Secondly, Coca-Cola's move to acquire brands associated with health and nutrition shows that the company is forward-thinking and preparing for future trends, another quality Buffett values in his investments. Lastly, despite the changing consumer preferences, Coca-Cola's strong origin story and brand recognition continue to make it a valuable investment.

Some examples of health and nutrition brands that Coca-Cola has acquired include Honest Tea and Odwalla.

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Moat by numbers

Coca-Cola's story gives a sense of what its moat is like, but the best way to really judge a company's moat is by looking at some key numbers on its financial statements. All public companies have to file these statements according to a set of accounting principles (although there may be some variation in the precise terminology used).

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The principles of value investing, as explained in the book 'Invested', can be applied to traditional sectors like manufacturing or retail by focusing on companies with a strong 'moat'. A moat refers to a business's ability to maintain competitive advantages over its competitors in order to protect its long-term profits and market share from competing firms. Look for companies with strong brand recognition, proprietary technology, or high customer switching costs. Additionally, value investors should look at key financial statements to judge a company's financial health. This includes looking at the company's debt levels, cash flow, and profit margins.

An investor might face several challenges when trying to understand a company's 'moat' from its financial statements. Firstly, financial statements may not provide a complete picture of a company's competitive advantage or 'moat'. They primarily focus on financial performance and position, not strategic factors like brand strength, customer loyalty, or intellectual property. Secondly, financial statements are historical and may not reflect future potential or threats. Thirdly, they may be subject to creative accounting practices, making it difficult to assess the true economic moat. Lastly, understanding a company's 'moat' requires industry knowledge and comparative analysis, which may not be evident from the financial statements alone.

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The Income Statement shows the company's revenue (how much it is making) and expenses; revenue minus expenses gives the company's profit. The Balance Sheet shows what the company owns (assets), what it owes (liabilities), and what is left. The Cash Flow Statement shows what cash has been spent, on what aspects of the business, and what is actually in the bank account.

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Warren Buffett's approach to value investing remains highly relevant in the contemporary financial landscape. His strategy focuses on investing in companies that are undervalued but have strong fundamentals, such as solid earnings, strong balance sheets, and good cash flow. This approach is designed to minimize risk and generate steady, long-term returns, which is particularly important in today's volatile and uncertain market conditions. Furthermore, Buffett's emphasis on understanding a company's business, rather than just its stock price, encourages investors to make more informed and rational investment decisions.

A startup can utilize the principles of the Income Statement, Balance Sheet, and Cash Flow Statement to ensure growth by using these financial statements as tools for strategic planning and decision making. The Income Statement can be used to analyze revenue streams and control expenses to maximize profit. The Balance Sheet can help in managing assets and liabilities effectively, ensuring the company's financial health. The Cash Flow Statement provides insights into the company's liquidity and can guide decisions related to investments, budgeting, and cash management. Regular review and analysis of these statements can help identify trends, potential issues, and opportunities for growth.

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There are four key numbers in these statements that roughly predict how strong and durable the company's moat might be:

  • Net Income: Also called Net Profit or Net Savings, this is on the Income Statement. It shows the company's profit after all costs have been deducted.
  • Book Value + Dividends: Book Value (also called Equity) is on the Balance Sheet and Dividends (if there are any) are on the Cash Flow Statement. Added together, these two numbers show the value of the business if it were closed down, after all of its assets have been sold and before any dividends have been paid.
  • Sales: Found on the Income Statement, this number shows the amount the company earns from selling, i.e., its revenue.
  • Operating Cash: Part of the Cash Flow Statement, this shows the actual cash that the company receives from its business operations.

For a strong and durable moat, each of these four numbers should be growing at 10% or more every year. Periodic ups and downs are not a problem, as long as the trend over time is for steady growth. When there is a down year in any of the four numbers, check to see what the reason was and how quickly the company got back on track.

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Yes, there are numerous examples of companies that have quickly recovered from a down year in their growth trend. For instance, Apple Inc. had a significant downturn in 2016, but quickly recovered in 2017 with the release of new products. Similarly, Microsoft had a down year in 2015 but bounced back in 2016 due to its successful transition to cloud-based services. It's important to note that recovery often depends on the company's ability to innovate and adapt to market changes.

Investors might face several obstacles when applying the 'moat' concept. One of the main challenges is identifying a true economic moat and differentiating it from a temporary competitive advantage. This requires deep understanding and analysis of the company and its industry. Another challenge is that even companies with strong moats can face disruption from technological changes or shifts in consumer behavior. To overcome these obstacles, investors should conduct thorough research, stay updated with industry trends, and diversify their portfolio to mitigate risks.

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Find the windage rate

Those four key numbers show how well the company did in the past; the next step is to figure out what you, the investor, think is a good overall growth rate for the company going forward. This is a judgement call based on your own research, akin to taking 'windage' into account when shooting a gun.

Most financial statements have three to five years of data in them; if you find the most recent 10-K (the annual company financial report, available on the company website) and the one from five years ago, you can figure out average growth rates for the four key numbers over, say, three- five- and ten-year periods. Combined with analyst predictions of how the company is expected to grow going forward and your own best guess, you can now come up with an overall growth rate for the company.

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The resource 'Invested' has influenced corporate strategies and business models by promoting the approach of value investing, popularized by Warren Buffett. This approach encourages businesses to focus on long-term gains and invest in companies that are undervalued but have strong fundamentals. It has led many corporations to reevaluate their investment strategies and shift towards value investing. This has also influenced business models, with companies placing more emphasis on sustainable growth and long-term value creation.

The theme of value investing is highly relevant to contemporary issues and debates in the financial world. Value investing, a strategy of buying stocks that are undervalued in the market, is a timeless approach that has been proven successful by investors like Warren Buffett. It's a strategy that encourages long-term investment based on fundamental analysis, which is always relevant in any financial discussion. In the current financial climate, with market volatility and economic uncertainty, the principles of value investing can provide a stable and rational approach to investing. However, it's also subject to debates, especially with the rise of new investment strategies and financial technologies.

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Research management

Charlie Munger's third investing principle is to find a company whose management has integrity and talent. For most of us, this is something we have to glean through secondary sources. Look for articles on the CEO's biography and management style and the story of the company founder. Look, too, for information about the board of directors and how they may have handled problems; and see if company founders or executives have large ownership stakes, i.e., are literally invested in the company's long-term future. Parse the public letters to shareholders and any other public statements. Are they straightforward or do they seem to carefully conceal any real information?

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The principles outlined in "Invested" can be applied to today's business environment by focusing on value investing, a strategy used by Warren Buffett. This involves finding a company whose management has integrity and talent. You can do this by researching the CEO's biography and management style, the story of the company founder, and the board of directors. Look for information about how they have handled problems and if company founders or executives have large ownership stakes, indicating they are invested in the company's long-term future. It's also important to analyze public letters to shareholders and other public statements to see if they are straightforward or seem to conceal information.

Some examples of companies that have successfully implemented Charlie Munger's third investing principle, which is to find a company whose management has integrity and talent, include Berkshire Hathaway, Amazon, and Apple. These companies have demonstrated a strong commitment to integrity and talent in their management teams, and their success can be attributed in part to these principles.

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In addition to these secondary sources, there are three key numbers that give insight into the quality of the company's management.

Return on equity

This is calculated from the data in the financial statements: Net Income (from the Income Statement) divided by Equity (from the Balance Sheet). ROE shows how many dollars of profit a company generates with each dollar of shareholder equity. However, the ROE can be artificially inflated if the company borrows a lot of money; so, it has to be looked at alongside the other two key management numbers.

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The concept of Return on Equity (ROE) challenges existing paradigms in finance and investment by providing a measure of a company's profitability in relation to shareholder equity. Traditional financial analysis often focuses on raw profit numbers or earnings per share. However, ROE provides a more nuanced view by considering the efficiency with which a company uses its equity. This can challenge the practice of simply looking at gross profits or revenue, and instead encourages investors to consider how effectively a company is using its resources. However, it's important to note that ROE can be manipulated through high levels of debt, which is why it should be considered alongside other financial metrics.

The lessons from "Invested" can be applied in today's business environment by adopting Warren Buffett's approach to value investing. This involves analyzing a company's financial statements to understand its true value, and investing in companies that are undervalued. It's important to look at key management numbers such as Net Income and Equity, and understand how these figures can be influenced by factors such as borrowing. By doing so, you can build an investment portfolio that will provide you with a steady income, allowing you to work less and travel more.

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Return on invested capital

This is Net Income again, but this time divided by Equity-plus-Debt. As a value investor, look for a company with an ROE and ROIC at 15% or better every year for the past decade. Anything less than ten years and there isn't enough history to show that the company is durable for the long haul.

Debt

Finally, look at the company's level of debt; a quick way to determine this is to compare the ROE and ROIC; if the two numbers are the same, the company has zero debt. If the company does carry long-term debt, they should be able to pay it off with at most two years of earnings.

With all of this information, you are ready for the next step: starting to build a wishlist of companies.

Building a wishlist

The only way to build the wishlist of companies you're interested in, is to start diving in to corporate annual reports. They make for boring reading, but it's the only way to start getting an in depth feel for their financial status and what makes them tick. Odds are, you'll be able to tell within a few minutes of reading whether or not you are capable of understanding this company – if it's too hard or just too plain boring, toss them on your reject pile.

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The themes in the book 'Invested' are highly relevant to contemporary issues and debates in finance and investing. The book emphasizes the importance of value investing, a strategy endorsed by Warren Buffett, which involves buying stocks deemed to be undervalued by some form of fundamental analysis. In today's volatile market, this approach is more relevant than ever. Furthermore, the book encourages readers to dive deep into corporate annual reports to understand a company's financial status, which is a crucial skill in today's data-driven investment landscape.

The theories presented in "Invested" challenge existing paradigms or practices in the field of investing by advocating for a more hands-on, personal approach. Instead of relying on financial advisors or complex investment algorithms, the book encourages individuals to take control of their own investments. It promotes the idea of value investing, a strategy used by Warren Buffett, which involves buying stocks that are undervalued by the market. This approach requires a deep understanding of the company, which is achieved by reading and analyzing their annual reports. This is a departure from the more passive investment strategies commonly used.

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Companies that have potential but just don't seem exciting you can put in your 'watching' pile – get back to them later after you're more adept at being a value investor. Very few companies will make it onto your wishlist, but that's OK. Remember: you're looking for a handful of companies that you are capable of understanding; that have durable moats; and that have management with integrity and talent.

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Management integrity and talent are crucial in value investing because they directly influence the performance and future prospects of a company. A management team with integrity ensures ethical business practices, which builds trust with investors and stakeholders. This can lead to a sustainable competitive advantage, or a 'durable moat', as Warren Buffett calls it. Talented management, on the other hand, can effectively utilize resources, drive innovation, and make strategic decisions that enhance the company's value. Therefore, investing in companies with such management teams can yield significant returns in the long run.

In the context of value investing, a "durable moat" refers to a company's sustainable competitive advantage over its competitors. This term is often used by Warren Buffett, who looks for companies with wide, durable moats when investing. These moats can be in the form of brand recognition, patents, cost advantages, or efficient scale. A durable moat helps protect a company's profits and market share from competitors, thus making it a potentially good investment.

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Now, it's time to tackle Charlie Munger's final principle of value investing: finding the right price.

4. Three ways to calculate price

The short version of Charlie's fourth principle is: figure out a reasonable price for this company's shares, then wait until the price falls below that level. This is the point at which first-time investors may start to panic, thinking, "But this involves math! I can't do math!" Yes, numbers are involved here but there's little real "math," it's mostly a case of logical thinking.

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First-time investors can overcome their fear of dealing with numbers and logical thinking in value investing by starting with the basics. Understanding the fundamental concepts of investing and financial metrics is crucial. They can take online courses, read books, or seek advice from financial advisors. Practicing with virtual trading platforms can also help to build confidence. Remember, it's not about complex mathematical equations, but about logical thinking and making informed decisions based on the available data.

Some strategies to determine a reasonable price for a company's shares, as suggested in the book 'Invested', include understanding the company's financial health, its future growth prospects, and the overall market conditions. It's also important to consider the company's earnings, its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, and its intrinsic value. The book emphasizes the importance of waiting until the share price falls below the calculated reasonable price before investing.

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In his 2014 letter to his shareholders, Buffett laid out the simplest way to put a price on a business: think about it like a real estate purchase. You know what the condo costs, what the neighborhood is like, and what the maintenance and yearly fees will be; and you know how much mortgage you can afford. With those numbers, you can figure out if this particular condo is the one you should buy. Pricing a company is no more complicated, once you know where to find the numbers and what to do with them.

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Potential obstacles companies might face when applying the concepts from "Invested" could include a lack of understanding of value investing principles, difficulty in finding accurate and relevant financial information, and resistance to change from traditional investment strategies. To overcome these obstacles, companies could invest in education and training to ensure all relevant staff understand the principles of value investing. They could also use reliable sources for financial information and employ financial analysts to interpret this data. Lastly, companies could gradually implement value investing strategies, allowing time for staff to adapt to new ways of working.

A small business can use the key topics covered in the book 'Invested' to grow by applying Warren Buffett's approach to value investing. This involves understanding the value of the business, similar to how one would assess the value of a real estate property. By knowing the worth of the business, its potential for growth, and the costs associated with running it, a small business owner can make informed decisions about investments and growth strategies. This approach can help in building a robust investment portfolio, which is crucial for the financial stability and growth of the business.

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Phil Town uses three different ways to price and value companies. By using all three, you can understand the company better and be confident that you have determined a good price to pay.

Ten cap price

The ten cap price is based on owner earnings; cap is short for capitalization. In his 2014 letter, Buffett describes using this method to pay for a farm in Nebraska and a building in New York City. A cap rate is the rate of return the property owner gets each year on the purchase price of the property. If you buy a farm for $500,000 and at the end of the year you have $50,000 in your pocket, then your cap rate was 10% – a ten cap. Buffett and Munger require a ten cap on their investments.

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The ten cap price is a method used in value investing, often associated with Warren Buffett. It's based on owner earnings and is short for capitalization. In real-world scenarios like buying a farm or a building, the ten cap price is the rate of return the property owner gets each year on the purchase price of the property. For instance, if you buy a farm for $500,000 and at the end of the year you have $50,000 in your pocket, then your cap rate was 10% – a ten cap. This is a requirement for investments made by Buffett and his partner, Charlie Munger.

The concept of capitalization rate, or cap rate, is integral to Warren Buffett's investment approach. It is the rate of return on the purchase price of a property, calculated annually. For instance, if a property is bought for $500,000 and yields $50,000 at the end of the year, the cap rate is 10%. This is also known as a ten cap. Buffett and his partner, Munger, require a ten cap on their investments, meaning they expect a 10% return on their investments annually. This strategy ensures a steady and significant return, contributing to the success of their investment approach.

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The formula is simple: owner earnings times ten. In his 1986 letter to shareholders, Buffett is characteristically blunt, calling owner earnings, "the relevant item for valuation purposes—both for investors in buying stocks and for managers in buying entire businesses." Buffett notes in his 2014 letter that while real estate deals with a ten cap are pretty rare, they are much more common in the stock market, where traders react to short-term emotions like fear and greed and drive prices down.

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The stock market's reaction to short-term emotions like fear and greed can significantly affect the application of the 'owner earnings times ten' formula. When traders react to these emotions, they can drive prices down, making stocks more affordable. This can present opportunities for value investors to buy stocks at a lower price, potentially leading to higher returns when the market stabilizes. However, it's important to note that this approach requires careful analysis and understanding of a company's true value, as well as patience to wait for the market to correct itself.

Potential obstacles investors might face when applying the principles of value investing include market volatility, emotional decision-making, and lack of patience. Market volatility can lead to short-term losses, which can be discouraging. However, value investing is a long-term strategy, and temporary market fluctuations should not deter an investor. Emotional decision-making can lead to buying high and selling low, which is contrary to the principles of value investing. Investors should make decisions based on thorough analysis rather than emotions. Lack of patience can lead to premature selling. It's important to remember that value investing often requires a longer time horizon for the investment to realize its full potential.

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Owner earnings is not a line on standard financial statements, but it is easy to calculate from those statements. Buffett's formula is very simple:

Owner earnings = net income + depreciation/amortization – average annual capital expenditure

To calculate owner earnings, add together six numbers (even though some may be negative, add them; it's an accounting thing). Net income is usually the very first line on the Cash Flow Statement. Right underneath is the entry for depreciation and amortization (a non-cash expense that takes account of the declining value of certain assets). Still in the same part of the Cash Flow Statement there will be lines citing net change in accounts receivable and accounts payable from the previous year – add those two numbers into the calculation, too. Next, add income tax paid, which can be found on the Income Statement. Finally, add maintenance capital expenditures – this number (which will be a negative one) may not be listed separately from total capital expenditures, so you'll have to estimate the average annual maintenance cost, based on what you know about the business. Add these six numbers together and multiply by ten; now you have the company's ten cap price.

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The ten cap price is a valuation metric used in Warren Buffett's approach to value investing. It is calculated by adding together six numbers related to a company's financials: net income, depreciation and amortization, net change in accounts receivable, net change in accounts payable, income tax paid, and maintenance capital expenditures. This sum is then multiplied by ten to get the ten cap price. This price can give an indication of the company's financial health. If the ten cap price is lower than the company's market cap, it could suggest that the company is undervalued, which may indicate a good investment opportunity. Conversely, if the ten cap price is higher than the market cap, it could suggest that the company is overvalued, which may indicate a risky investment.

Maintenance capital expenditures play a crucial role in the calculation of owner earnings. They represent the average annual cost required to maintain the current operating level of a business. This number, which is usually a negative one, may not be listed separately from total capital expenditures, so it's often estimated based on what is known about the business. When calculating owner earnings, maintenance capital expenditures are added to other factors such as net income, depreciation and amortization, net change in accounts receivable and payable, and income tax paid.

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However, this is a static picture of the company; it doesn't take growth into account.

Payback time price

This calculation is based on the company's free cash flow and it does take growth into account. It calculates how many years it will take to get your whole purchase price back: free cash flow, grown by the compounded 'windage growth rate' for eight years. To calculate free cash flow, go to the Cash Flow Statement and add together the lines called 'net cash provided by operating activities,' 'purchase of property and equipment' (again, a negative number but you add it), and any 'other capital expenditures for maintenance and growth' (also a negative number).

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Invested" provides several actionable takeaways for aspiring investors. Firstly, it emphasizes the importance of understanding the value of a company before investing. This involves analyzing the company's free cash flow and growth rate. Secondly, it encourages investors to follow Warren Buffett's approach to value investing, which involves buying stocks at a price less than their intrinsic value. Lastly, it suggests that investors should be patient and focus on long-term gains rather than short-term profits.

The lessons from the book 'Invested' can be applied in today's investment environment by following Warren Buffett's approach to value investing. This involves building an investment portfolio that focuses on companies with strong free cash flow and potential for growth. It's about understanding the company's financials, particularly the Cash Flow Statement, and calculating the 'windage growth rate'. This approach allows you to estimate how many years it will take to get your whole purchase price back. It's a method that requires patience and discipline, but can lead to financial security and the possibility of early retirement.

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Remember, you came up with the windage growth rate when you were researching the company's moat and financial outlook. Now, compound that free cash flow every year by your windage growth rate, for a period of eight years. For example, say you have a lemonade stand with a free cash flow of $1,500 and you've decided it's windage growth rate is 16%. Multiply $1,500 by 16% and you get $240; now carry the calculation forward, cumulatively for eight years. The result is a payback time price for the lemonade stand of $24,778 – if you pay that amount for the company today, in eight years you will have your whole purchase price back.

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The ideas from the book "Invested" can be implemented in real-world scenarios by following the approach of value investing as suggested by Warren Buffett. This involves researching a company's financial outlook and determining its 'windage growth rate'. This rate is then used to calculate the future free cash flow of the company. For instance, if you have a business with a free cash flow of $1,500 and a windage growth rate of 16%, you can calculate the future value of the business. This approach helps in making informed investment decisions and building a profitable investment portfolio.

The concept of payback time price is highly relevant in today's business environment. It is a valuation method used to determine the worth of a business or investment. It calculates the time it will take for an investment to generate enough cash flows to recover the initial investment cost. This concept is particularly useful in assessing the financial viability of a business or investment, helping investors make informed decisions. It's especially relevant in today's volatile business environment where investors seek to minimize risk and ensure their investments are sound.

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>Lemonade stand payback time chart from page 205<

Margin of safety valuation

This is based on earnings and is how you calculate the value of the company. You should only buy when the price gives you a margin of safety; the ten cap pricing method requires a high return so it requires a low buying price (a nice big margin of safety), while the payback time pricing method gets you your money back in eight years. Finally, you have to calculate a valuation method that has a margin of safety built in. This is a variation on what accountants call Discounted Cash Flow Analysis.

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Investors might face several obstacles when applying the concepts from "Invested". One of the main challenges could be understanding and correctly applying the valuation methods, such as the ten cap pricing method and the payback time pricing method. These methods require a deep understanding of financial analysis and the ability to accurately calculate the value of a company. To overcome this, investors could educate themselves further on these methods, possibly through additional resources or financial courses. Another potential obstacle could be the patience required to wait for the right buying opportunity that offers a margin of safety. Overcoming this requires discipline and a long-term investment mindset.

The investment theories presented in the book 'Invested' challenge existing paradigms by advocating for a value investing approach, inspired by Warren Buffett. This approach emphasizes the importance of understanding the value of a company based on its earnings and buying at a price that provides a margin of safety. This is a deviation from more traditional methods that may focus more on market trends and less on intrinsic company value. The book also introduces the ten cap pricing method and the payback time pricing method, both of which require a low buying price and aim to ensure a high return or payback within eight years, respectively.

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First, figure out what rate of return you need to get on your money every year, to make the investment risk worthwhile. A good rule of thumb minimum acceptable rate of return for stocks is 15%.

Decide what the price of the company should reasonably be in ten years: take the earnings per share (from the Income Statement) and multiply it by (1 + your windage rate), and do this ten times. The result is your future ten-year earnings per share.

Next, take your windage growth number and double it; compare the result with the company's historically-highest price/earnings ratio (which you can easily find online). Pick whichever of these two numbers is the lowest and multiply your future ten-year earnings per share by this number. Now you know what the future price of one share should be, ten years from now.

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The lessons from 'Invested' can be applied in today's volatile financial market by following Warren Buffett's approach to value investing. This involves careful analysis of a company's fundamentals, including its earnings growth and price/earnings ratio. By understanding these factors, you can make informed decisions about when to buy or sell stocks, even in a volatile market. It's also important to have a long-term investment strategy and not be swayed by short-term market fluctuations.

The real-world potential of the investment strategies discussed in the book 'Invested' is significant. The book outlines Warren Buffett's approach to value investing, which has proven to be successful over many decades. By following this approach, investors can build a portfolio that will grow over time, providing a solid financial foundation. This strategy involves careful analysis of companies, including their growth potential and price/earnings ratio, to determine their future value. However, like all investment strategies, it requires patience, discipline, and a willingness to learn.

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Now, work backwards to find out what the price should be today, assuming a 15% rate of return every year. Take your future ten-year share price and divide it by 4; the result is today's reasonable price for that company. Finally, take that sticker price and cut it in half: that's your margin of safety.

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Warren Buffett's investment strategy involves determining the reasonable price for a company by working backwards. First, you need to estimate the future ten-year share price of the company. This is done by projecting the company's earnings and growth over the next ten years. Once you have the future share price, divide it by 4 to get today's reasonable price for the company. This is based on the assumption of a 15% rate of return every year. Finally, take that sticker price and cut it in half. This gives you your margin of safety, which is a buffer to protect against any unforeseen negative events or miscalculations.

The concept of margin of safety in value investing is a principle that involves buying securities at prices significantly below their intrinsic value, which is determined through fundamental analysis. This difference between the intrinsic value and the purchase price is the 'margin of safety'. It provides a cushion against errors in estimation or unforeseen market developments. In the context of the content provided, the margin of safety is calculated by taking the reasonable price for a company's share and cutting it in half. This ensures a safety net in case the actual returns are lower than the expected 15% rate of return.

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>lemonade stand margin of safety calculation table from page 217<

After running these three pricing models, you may end up with three very different results. At this point, you make a judgement call on what you think is a reasonable price to pay, based on everything you now know about the company.

5. Write – and invert – the story

The final stage in preparing to take the investment plunge is to tell the story of why you should buy this company – and then invert it and tell the story of why you should not. Go back over all the work you have done up to this point and write up your investment story.

Do you understand this company and does it meet your mission-to-invest criteria? Does it have an intrinsic, durable, solid moat and are its big four numbers growing? What is your opinion of the management team? And, what is a good price at which to buy?

Next, list three great reasons to buy this company. Now, describe the Event (whatever it may be) that has led to this company being on sale. Are you confident that the company can recover from the Event in three years or less?

Now, invert the story. Come up with three good reasons not to buy this company and see if you can rebut each reason not to own. If you can't, or you're undecided, then this company gets taken off your wishlist. That may seem harsh after spending all this time building up your company profile and running all those numbers, but the intent here is to avoid an expensive mistake. Odds are you can use a lot of your background research on another company in the same industry; no investment research is ever a waste of time.

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Yes, there are many investors who have successfully implemented the practices outlined in the book 'Invested'. The most notable example is the author himself, Warren Buffett, who is considered one of the most successful investors in the world. His approach to value investing, as outlined in the book, has been adopted by many other investors around the world. However, specific names or case studies are not mentioned in the book.

Investors might face several obstacles when applying the concepts from the book "Invested". One of the main challenges could be the difficulty in finding companies that meet the criteria for value investing. This requires extensive research and understanding of the company's financials, which can be time-consuming and complex. Another obstacle could be emotional bias, which might lead to making investment decisions based on emotions rather than rational analysis. To overcome these obstacles, investors should dedicate sufficient time for research and analysis, seek professional advice if needed, and practice emotional discipline to avoid making impulsive investment decisions.

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However, if after all this you still really like this company, then it goes on your wishlist. Now, you just wait for the price to be right.

Setting up a brokerage account

While you are waiting for the right time to buy into one of your handful of wishlist companies, set up a brokerage account at one of the online companies like TD Ameritrade or Schwab. This is no more complicated than deciding where to open a bank account.

When you are ready to make a purchase, you go to your account, type in the symbol for the company you want to buy and specify how many shares. The broker will likely ask for confirmation that this is a limit order – meaning the seller will sell it to you at the price you specify, or less. Investor guru Mohnish Pabrai has said that he never puts in a buy order when the market is actually open, because he doesn't want to be focused on the day's price fluctuations.

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The investment strategies in the book 'Invested' can be used by a small business to grow by applying the principles of value investing. This involves identifying undervalued assets and investing in them. A small business can apply this by investing in undervalued resources or opportunities that have the potential to yield high returns in the future. Additionally, the book emphasizes the importance of not being swayed by market fluctuations, which can be applied in business by not making impulsive decisions based on temporary market conditions.

The real-world implications of the investment strategies discussed in the book "Invested" could be significant. By following Warren Buffett's approach to value investing, individuals may be able to build a robust investment portfolio. This could potentially lead to financial stability and even early retirement. However, it's important to note that investing always comes with risks, and the strategies discussed in the book may not be suitable for everyone. It's recommended to thoroughly research and consider one's financial situation and risk tolerance before making investment decisions.

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Whenever you do decide to buy, remember you have picked your buy price based on solid research; you will almost certainly not be able to predict the bottom of the stock price; and, you're in this investment for the long term.

6. Your antifragile portfolio

The key to building a portfolio that will withstand the regular fluctuations of the market and one-off Events – an antifragile portfolio, to use Nassim Nicholas Taleb's teminology – is patience. Think of yourself as a hunter stalking its prey, waiting for the price to be right on your handful of wishlist companies. Your companies all have durable moats, meaning they can not only withstand, but likely actually benefit from, Events. The companies are antifragile because they will come back stronger than ever. So, until the price comes down, wait in cash and be ready to take action when the chaos hits. Just don't hesitate and think, "Maybe I should wait even longer for the price to fall even lower."

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A company with a durable moat has a long-term competitive advantage that protects it from competitors. This could be a unique product, a strong brand, or a cost advantage. This moat allows the company to withstand market fluctuations and unexpected events, making it antifragile. An antifragile company not only survives these events but also benefits from them, coming back stronger than before.

A company can benefit from market fluctuations and one-off events by building an antifragile portfolio. This involves patiently waiting for the right price on a handful of wishlist companies that have durable moats, meaning they can not only withstand, but likely actually benefit from, such events. These companies are antifragile because they will come back stronger than ever. Therefore, it's important to wait in cash and be ready to take action when the chaos hits.

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So, how much to invest in each company? A good rule of thumb is to put 10% of your investment portfolio in each company, but that's just a guideline. Either way, have a plan for what order you will buy your wishlist in if the whole market goes down at once. And, when it comes to deciding where to start, Buffett would say, "Buy your favorite," because that's the company you have spent the most time thinking about.

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The investment strategies in "Invested" have a high potential to be implemented in real-world scenarios. The book outlines Warren Buffett's approach to value investing, which has been proven successful over many decades. It suggests investing 10% of your portfolio in each company you believe in, which is a practical and manageable strategy for most investors. However, it's important to note that while the strategies are theoretically sound, their success in the real world depends on a variety of factors including market conditions, individual investor's knowledge, and their ability to stick to the plan.

The theme of "Invested" is highly relevant to contemporary issues and debates in the financial world. It discusses the approach of value investing, popularized by Warren Buffett, which is a strategy of picking stocks that appear to be trading for less than their intrinsic or book value. This strategy is still widely used and debated today. Furthermore, the book addresses common financial concerns such as retirement planning and investment strategies, topics that are always pertinent in financial discussions.

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One of Buffett's biggest secrets to lowering risk and raising overall return is buying companies that, over time, reduce the amount he has invested in them by sending him some of their free cash flow – in other words, dividends. Ideally, you will get all of your money back through dividends. However, companies are under a great deal of pressure to keep the dividends paying out, no matter what; and sometimes that is not the best use of their funds. Don't buy based on whether a company pays a regular dividend, but rather on whether management is using its free cash wisely.

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Dividends play a significant role in Warren Buffett's investment strategy. He prefers buying companies that, over time, reduce the amount he has invested in them by sending him some of their free cash flow, which is essentially dividends. This strategy lowers risk as it allows for a return of investment over time, irrespective of market fluctuations. It also raises the overall return as the dividends can be reinvested to compound the growth. However, Buffett doesn't buy based on whether a company pays a regular dividend, but rather on whether management is using its free cash wisely.

Small businesses can apply Warren Buffett's approach to value investing by focusing on companies that generate free cash flow and use it wisely. This approach involves investing in companies that, over time, reduce the amount invested in them by returning some of their free cash flow, ideally through dividends. However, the focus should not be on whether a company pays a regular dividend, but rather on whether the management is using its free cash wisely. This strategy can help small businesses reduce risk and increase overall return.

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One tactic to use is to buy in tranches or slices. When your target company price hits your buying level, buy 25% of what your total purchase aim is for the company; when the price goes down more, buy the next 25%, and so on. This helps to alleviate your fear of what happens if the price keeps falling after you buy. Just remember that the aim is to buy and hold for the long term.

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The book "Invested" has influenced corporate investment strategies by promoting the approach of value investing, popularized by Warren Buffett. It encourages buying in tranches or slices when the target company price hits the buying level. This strategy helps to alleviate the fear of price drops after purchase. The book emphasizes a long-term hold strategy, which can influence corporations to adopt a more patient and strategic approach to their investments.

The specific examples of companies that have successfully implemented the tranche buying strategy are not mentioned in the content. However, many investment firms and individual investors use this strategy. It's a common practice in the stock market and is used by investors worldwide. The strategy is not company-specific but rather a method used by investors to mitigate risk and potentially maximize returns.

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When to sell

Do not plan on selling your company unless its story changes – perhaps its moat is breached by a fundamental shift in the industry, a major new technological invention, or management turning into traitors to the stakeholders (debt rises, ROIC starts dropping, etc.). The story inversion exercise that you went through before putting the company on your wishlist will give you clues as to what might wreck the company and cause you to sell.

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The principles of value investing can be applied in traditional sectors like manufacturing or retail by focusing on companies that have a strong competitive advantage or 'moat'. This could be a strong brand, cost advantages, or efficient scale. These companies are often undervalued by the market, providing an opportunity for investors. Additionally, investors should look for companies with a good return on invested capital (ROIC) and low debt levels. It's also important to understand the company's story and be prepared to hold onto the investment for a long time, unless the company's story changes significantly.

1. Embrace Value Investing: The book emphasizes the importance of value investing, a strategy used by Warren Buffett. This involves buying stocks that are undervalued in the market and holding onto them for a long time.

2. Understand the Company's Story: Before investing in a company, understand its story. This includes its business model, industry position, and potential threats.

3. Monitor for Changes: If the company's story changes significantly, such as a major shift in the industry or management issues, it may be time to sell your stake.

4. Focus on Return on Invested Capital (ROIC): The book highlights the importance of ROIC. A drop in ROIC could be a warning sign of trouble.

Remember, these takeaways are not just for investing, but can also be applied to managing a business.

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Keep track of the company's story through its annual report and shareholders meeting; regular reading of the business news; and periodic checks on what your favorite investment gurus are doing. Keep an eye on the overall market by checking the Shiller P/E and the Wilshire GDP. And finally, keep doing the research to find potential new wishlist companies.

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Warren Buffett's investment approach, as discussed in the book 'Invested', can be applied to find potential new wishlist companies by following a few key steps. First, keep track of the company's story through its annual report and shareholders meeting. Regular reading of the business news and periodic checks on what your favorite investment gurus are doing can also provide valuable insights. Keep an eye on the overall market by checking the Shiller P/E and the Wilshire GDP. Finally, continue doing the research to find potential new wishlist companies. This approach requires patience and diligence, but it can lead to successful long-term investments.

The Shiller P/E and the Wilshire GDP are both indicators that can be used to assess the overall health of the market. The Shiller P/E, also known as the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, is a valuation measure that uses real earnings per share over a 10-year period to smooth out fluctuations in corporate profits that occur over different periods of a business cycle. A high Shiller P/E suggests that stocks may be overvalued, while a low Shiller P/E suggests they may be undervalued. The Wilshire GDP, on the other hand, is a measure of the total market value of all goods and services produced in a country in a specific time period. It can be used to gauge the overall economic activity and health of a country. By monitoring these two indicators, investors can get a sense of whether the market is overvalued or undervalued, and adjust their investment strategies accordingly.

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As you start to build your investing practice, you will get more adept at doing the research, finding the information, running the numbers, and making decisions. You'll start to see the world around you through the eyes of an investor, not just a passive consumer. You will gain new insights into your thoughts about money and new confidence in your ability to ride out the inevitable next market crash.

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The shift from a passive consumer to an active investor can significantly contribute to financial freedom and retirement planning. As an active investor, you're not just spending money, but strategically placing it in investments that can grow over time. This approach can lead to wealth accumulation, providing financial security for retirement. Moreover, active investing involves continuous learning and decision-making, which can lead to better financial literacy and independence. This shift in perspective can help you better prepare for market fluctuations and make informed decisions about your financial future.

Value investing, as advocated by Warren Buffett, challenges traditional approaches to building an investment portfolio in several ways. Traditional investing often focuses on diversification and buying stocks based on market trends. Value investing, on the other hand, emphasizes on buying stocks that are undervalued by the market, often due to temporary issues. This requires a deep understanding of the company's fundamentals and a willingness to go against the market trends. It also requires patience, as the true value of the stocks may take time to be recognized by the market. This approach can be more risky as it often involves concentrating investments in fewer stocks, but it can also offer higher returns if the investor's analysis is correct.

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